1.Lee Chiu

Mr. Roy Golez (Head of Research, Lee Chiu Property Consulting)

Housing Market Outlook and Urban Development Trends

At the 2026 Socialized Housing Forum, Roy Golez of Lee Chiu Property Consultants presented a data-driven overview of the Philippine real estate market that highlights a critical imbalance; while condominium  supply remains abundant in higher-income segments, this is severely lacking for socialized and affordable condominiums.

Golez emphasized that the Philippine economy remains strongly supported by key drivers such as the BPO sector and overseas remittances. The IT-BPM industry alone contributes around $40 billion in 2025, generating 1.9 million in employment. The sector is expected to generate an estimated 100,000 to 200,000 new jobs in the near term. These economic forces, alongside $40 billion OFW remittances, continue to fuel consumer spending and shape housing demand.

However, this growth remains geographically concentrated. Around 60% of the country’s GDP is still generated within Metro Manila and nearby provinces such as Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Bulacan, Pampanga, and Tarlac. As infrastructure expands, particularly through projects like the North-South Commuter Railway, this cluster is expected to evolve into what Golez described as “Mega Manila,” further reinforcing the concentration of jobs and, consequently, housing demand in these areas. This concentration has significant implications for housing.

Golez explained that housing demand closely follows employment: “Wherever there are jobs, there will be need for housing.” As a result, migration continues to flow into areas surrounding Metro Manila, where population growth rates exceed the national average. But despite this demand, the current housing supply is misaligned.

In the condominium market, there is a clear oversupply–particularly in mid- to high-end segments. As of 2025, around 80,000 units remain unsold, equivalent to approximately 4.5 years of supply. Yet within this same market, there is minimal availability of low-cost housing condominiums, with fewer than 4,000 units serving lower-income segments.

At the same time, affordability has worsened. While average incomes have grown by only around 19–20% from 2019 to 2025, housing prices have increased by as much as 56% in the same period, widening the gap between what Filipinos earn and what housing costs.

Condominium rental markets reflect similar pressures. In several areas of Metro Manila, rents remain significantly below pre-pandemic levels–dropping as much as 50% in some locations–due to excess supply and shifting demand patterns. This has resulted in a renter’s market, where landlords are forced to adjust pricing and offer flexible payment schemes.

Beyond Metro Manila, conditions are slightly more stable, with provincial markets maintaining healthier supply levels. However, the broader issue persists at the national level due to a growing housing backlog.

The estimated backlog  will reach an additional  3.7 million units by 2028, with annual production falling far short of demand. While approximately 128,000 units are built each year, household formation reaches nearly 478,000, resulting in a persistent annual shortfall of around 350,000 units. Notably, this gap is concentrated in socialized and economic housing, while higher-end housing segments experience oversupply. This is based on the study conducted by Dr. Winston Padojinog of the University of Asia and the Pacific. 

To address this imbalance, Golez pointed to the need for more strategic and collaborative approaches. One potential direction is “infill development,” which focuses on building within or near existing urban areas to improve access to jobs and infrastructure. He also emphasized the importance of public-private cooperation in scaling housing delivery.

Looking ahead, external pressures such as rising fuel costs, inflation, and global geopolitical tensions may further shape housing demand. These factors are expected to increase demand for rental housing and reinforce preferences for homes located closer to employment centers.

Golez concluded by highlighting the importance of rethinking housing solutions–not just in terms of ownership, but also rental models that prioritize security of tenure, adequate living conditions, and proximity to livelihoods.